Igor Zalutski
1 min readFeb 23, 2022

--

There seems to be a shocking degree of misunderstanding of the power law dynamics among founders, especially first-time founders. Exits in double-digit Ms somehow seem attractive. But there's nothing life-changing about it! Say the co got sold for $50M. It probably took at least 5 years and 3 rounds of funding to get there. Assuming 2 co-founders and typical dilution they probably each own 10% at best. So 5M is the payoff for 5 years of extremely hard work. Not that bad actually - if it was guaranteed. But it's far from guaranteed. Factor in the odds and from a purely wealth-generation perspective it makes way more sense to just go work for big tech or in management consulting. Getting from 0 to prodigy there would still be way faster and easier than building a startup. And unlike with a startup, the payoff is guaranteed.

What follows is that money-wise it doesn't make any sense to build a startup unless the bar is a unicorn, at a minimum. Linking less ambitious businesses to future wealth is comforting because the odds seem higher if the bar is lower, but that's irrational. If the objective is wealth, then either build big or focus efforts elsewhere.

--

--

Igor Zalutski
Igor Zalutski

Responses (1)